Analysis of the foreign trade situation of pharmaceuticals in the first quarter of 2011

In the first quarter of this year, the world economy continued to recover, the global pharmaceutical trade heated up, the domestic pharmaceutical market developed rapidly, the import demand for high-end pharmaceutical products increased significantly, China's pharmaceutical trade achieved rapid growth, the import and export volume of pharmaceutical foreign trade reached 16.224 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 41.07%, of which, exports were 10.119 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 38.13%, and imports were 6.105 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 46.23%, and the import and export growth rate was better than expected.

At present, the competitive advantage of China's low-end pharmaceutical products is still relatively obvious, and further strengthened in the process of transferring the global pharmaceutical industry to developing countries.
　　
One. API products ushered in a new stage of growth, with stable growth in developed markets and rapid development in emerging pharmaceutical markets
　　In the first quarter, China's API exports were US$5.363 billion, a year-on-year increase of 31.31%, achieving the largest quarterly year-on-year increase in API exports since the financial crisis. In terms of market, exports to developed markets such as the European Union, the United States, and Japan rose steadily, with exports of US$1.414 billion, US$683 million, and US$311 million respectively, with growth rates of 26.31%, 12.82%, and 3.23% respectively, and an overall increase of 19.13% for the above three markets. Exports to major emerging pharmaceutical markets such as India, ASEAN, and Brazil were 7.78, 503, and 158 million US dollars, respectively, an increase of 39.15%, 45.64%, and 55.82% year-on-year, respectively, and the total proportion of the above three regions in exports increased from 24.69% to 26.9%. At the same time, statistics show that the growth of the overall export value of APIs in the first quarter is mainly driven by the number of exports, with the increase in export volume reaching 39.53% and the export price falling by 5.89%, which further shows that the fierce domestic market competition pattern has not changed, and the phenomenon of export price reduction is prominent. In terms of the main varieties, the export growth of traditional bulk commodities was sluggish, and the export volume of 10 key products such as heparin sodium, vitamin C, vitamin E, and penicillin industrial salt increased by 7.23%, while the export price decreased by 16.51% and the export value decreased by 10.48%. On the other hand, the export of some APIs such as macrolide antibiotics, hormones, chloramphenicol and tetracycline APIs has improved significantly, and the export prices have risen, with the average price increasing by 30.39%, 19.84%, 31.24% and 40.05% respectively, and the export value increasing by 100.35%, 23.69%, 60.72% and 37.1% respectively.

　　
　Two. The export of high-end pharmaceutical products is differentiated, the growth rate of preparation exports is declining, and the export situation of diagnosis and treatment equipment is optimistic
　　In the first quarter, the export of high-end pharmaceutical products represented by Western medicine preparations and diagnosis and treatment equipment was differentiated. Driven by the strong export of AstraZeneca Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., the export of western medicine preparations increased by 23.71% in the first quarter. Export growth was lower than the same period last year. AstraZeneca Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd., a foreign-funded enterprise, took advantage of the strong strength of China's API industry to transfer the production of preparations to China, and the first quarter of the new preparation exports were 73.5 million US dollars, most of which were exported to Australia, quickly ranking first in the export of Western pharmaceutical preparations, becoming the main driving force for the growth of preparations in the first quarter, if AstraZeneca's new export factors are not counted, the export of preparations in the first quarter increased only slightly by 2%, down nearly 1/3 from the same period last year. The export of state-owned and private enterprises is still biased towards the markets of Asia, Africa and South America, and the underdeveloped markets account for 80% of the exports. Due to the high entry threshold in the high-end market, the company's new drug R&D strength is weak, there are few products with independent intellectual property rights, the innovation ability of generic drugs is also insufficient, and there are many low-end products, which is difficult to effectively open the mainstream market in Europe and the United States, and the future development still carries great uncertainty.
　　The export growth of diagnosis and treatment equipment was strong, with exports of 1.423 billion US dollars in the first quarter, a year-on-year increase of 52.82%, accounting for 44.07% of the export of medical devices. The export growth is manifested in two aspects, one is the increase in the proportion of high-end diagnosis and treatment equipment, and the expansion of the export market scope of nuclear magnetic resonance imaging devices, X-ray tomography instruments, color ultrasound diagnostic instruments and other products, which drives the growth of high-end product exports, thereby driving the overall average export price of diagnosis and treatment equipment to increase by 54.90%; Second, the main export markets grew in an all-round way, and emerging markets developed particularly rapidly, among them, exports to the European Union, the United States, and Japan markets increased by 48.25%, 28.82%, and 49.38% respectively, and the growth rates of ASEAN, the Middle East, Africa, India, Russia and other markets reached 68.21%, 97.03%, 92.43%, 104.11%, and 140.93% respectively, and the recognition of Chinese diagnosis and treatment equipment in the global market is gradually improving; In addition, the export of diagnosis and treatment equipment has declined, the proportion of state-owned private enterprises has increased significantly, in the first quarter, the proportion of diagnosis and treatment equipment exports accounted for by foreign-funded enterprises fell from 73.66% in the same period to 63.93%, the proportion of state-owned private enterprises increased by nearly 10 percentage points, reaching 35.98%, especially the export growth rate of private enterprises reached 134.94%, but the low concentration and small export scale are still the main problems faced by state-owned and private enterprises.
　　
　　Three. Traditional medical dressings and disposable consumables have been affected by the rise in raw material prices, and export prices have risen sharply
　　In the first quarter, the export value of traditional medical dressings and disposable consumables in China increased significantly, with an increase of 103.58% and 45.25% respectively, while the export volume did not change significantly. The most important factor for the sharp growth of the export of medical dressings is the impact of the high cotton price, the export price has risen sharply, of which the price of medicinal cotton, gauze and bandage has risen by 39.12%, the price of cotton surgical towels has risen by 46.71%, and the price of bleached and unbleached cotton medical gauze has increased by 68.4% and 136.77% respectively. Combined with the analysis of global customs data (GTI), in the first two months of this year, the price of China's cotton medical dressing products increased sharply without a significant impact on the global market demand, and the volume and price of China's medical dressing products in the European Union and North American markets rose together, continuing to maintain stable growth, and the market share also increased by 7 and 11 percentage points respectively, reaching 58.11% and 56.44%, still occupying an absolute market share, and the competitive advantage is extremely obvious. However, it is worth noting that ASEAN, India, Mexico and other countries are gradually entering the European and American medical dressing market, especially the European Union market is growing rapidly, Thailand, India's growth rate reached 176.08% and 60.95% respectively, although the market share is less than 5%, but the competitive situation has gradually revealed. At the same time, some countries in the former European Union, such as the United Kingdom, France, and the Netherlands, have gradually withdrawn from the medical dressing market.
　　Disposable consumables have generally grown significantly in the world's major markets, with Asian, European Union, North America, and African markets increasing by 48.50%, 29.20%, 59.13%, and 33.42% respectively, and the average export price has increased by 23.85%.
　　
　　

　Four. The domestic pharmaceutical market is developing rapidly, and the proportion of high-end products continues to increase
　　In the first quarter, China's drug import market continued to maintain substantial growth, with an import value of 6.105 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 46.23%, and pharmaceutical imports showed the following characteristics: First, the concentration of source countries continued to increase, and drug imports from developed countries such as the European Union, the United States, and Japan reached 75% of the total drug imports, with a total increase of 50.78%; Second, imports from India, Brazil and other countries with rapid development of pharmaceutical industry have grown steadily, with an increase of 35.45% and 163.81% respectively. Third, the proportion of high-end pharmaceutical products has increased, which is reflected in the increase in the import price and proportion of Western patent medicines, and the proportion of raw materials and device products has decreased.
　　At present, China is entering an aging society, the domestic medical system is becoming more and more perfect, the domestic pharmaceutical market is expected to expand, and the demand for foreign medicine will maintain a relatively rapid growth, but due to the large gap between exports and imports, it is difficult to have a significant reversal of the trade deficit in the short term.
　　
Five. Pharmaceutical exports will turn to moderate growth in the second quarter, and the year-on-year growth rate will decline
　　In order to reduce costs, the production and R&D of global pharmaceuticals have begun to shift to developing countries including China, India, Israel, and Brazil, and the proportion of global generic drug sales has increased. In addition, the economic recovery of developed countries and the rapid development of emerging pharmaceutical markets, so that the global pharmaceutical market demand has grown effectively, the above factors will continue to promote the continuous growth of global pharmaceutical trade, while China's API and medical device products have not reduced their competitive advantage, so that China's foreign-funded pharmaceutical enterprises have gained further development space, and the import and export volume will increase significantly. In terms of export prices, due to the fact that global inflation has not been effectively curbed, the increase in China's pharmaceutical production costs, and the gradual reflection of cost factors in export prices is an inevitable trend. Therefore, in the medium and long term, there is still room for further expansion of China's pharmaceutical products in terms of market increment and export price.
　　In terms of unfavorable factors, due to the recent rapid growth of pharmaceutical exports, some products, especially API products, will have a phased market surplus, which will have a certain inhibitory effect on the export increment.

Based on the above factors, it is expected that pharmaceutical exports will continue to remain optimistic in the second quarter, but the growth rate will decline.